One simple question and at least 3.76 million votes will decide Venezuela’s fate next August 15th. The referendum -by which president Hugo Chavez Frias would be ratified or expelled from his position- has been the result of a series of clashes between “chavistas” (pro-Chavez people) and the opposition during the past few years. Unfortunately these clashes have left hundreds of casualties and a greater account of injured people. Undoubtedly, Hugo Chavez represents the bone of contention that has positioned Venezuela in such a socio-political bipolarity, probably the most relevant of the latter years in Latin America.

Born in Barinas, Chavez has demonstrated a defying personality, even prior to his candidacy for presidential elections, when he organized two coups d’etat in 1992. During both incidents, 20 people were killed. Chavez was incarcerated for two years.

Almost two decades before, in 1975, Chavez graduated from the Military Arts and Sciences School at the Venezuela’s Academy of Army Officials, class of “Simon Bolivar”. During his time there, he met Jesus Urdaneta Hernandez, Francisco Arias Cardenas and Felipe Acosta Carles. With them, Chavez co-founded the Revolutionary Bolivarian Movement (MBR-200), in 1983. It was through this movement that he carried out the two coups d’etat in 1992: Unfortunately for Chavez, both actions fell apart almost immediately. But Chavez’s movement survived, and it is still leaded by him, although it was renamed as the Fifth Republic Movement (MVR).
 

Chavez knew that he had some advantage when he decided to launch his campaign for the presidential election. Former Venezuelan president Carlos Andres Perez, leader of Democratic Action (AD) and Chavez’s most controversial predecessor, had been indicted and incarcerated under corruption and embezzlement charges in 1996. The socio-political order of the country was completely broken. Chavez then saw a great opportunity of re-introducing himself as the populist leader with irrefutable messianic discourse.

Elected as president of Venezuela in 1998, Chavez reached the country’s higher position precisely through his revolutionary promises of creating and applying new social policies that, supposedly, would positively transform the country.

Since the beginning, his feisty attitude triggered a warning among the political and entrepreneurial elites; those that have been criticized by Chavez as “servants of the international capitalism” on several occasions. In 2000, after a failed coup d’etat carried out by Chavez’s opponents, the MVR leader was democratically re-elected as the Venezuelan president for a majority of 3.76 votes.

However, Chavez was still unable to close the gaps between the rich and the poor of the country, like he promised he would do during his first administration. Instead, he initiated some kind of “campaign”, publicly discrediting the political and entrepreneurial elites –especially against those involved with the oil industry, which is the dominant in the country. It is important to highlight that Venezuela is the fourth largest producer of oil in the world, and one of the main suppliers of petroleum for the United States.

In one occasion, Chavez accused some oil entrepreneurs of living in “luxurious residences where they perform orgies and drink scotch.” He even criticized the Catholic Church. Either because of his well-known atheism or not, Chavez accused the Catholic Church of “not going through Christ’s path”. In the same way, because of his constant need of defying the imperialistic intentions of the American government, Chavez has stated in several occasions his sympathy for Cuba and, therefore, for his greatest ally: Fidel Castro. As if that was not enough, Chavez visited Iraq, turning into the first president to visit the Middle East country after the 1991 Gulf War.

All in all, Chavez’s rapacious and polemic statements ignited the rage of his opponents, basically composed by the country’s entrepreneurs. But at the same time, his indomitable personality secured his leadership over his followers, the people per se, better known as “chavistas”.

However, a few months before the coup d’etat incident against Chavez in April 2002 (probably the most attended and violent in the Venezuelan history), the president’s popularity had decreased from an 80% he had when he started his second administration, to a poor 30%.

“An humane economic plan”

Using that phrase, Hugo Chavez backed the new economic regulations approved in 2001. As it was expected, the laborer and entrepreneurial groups made public their dislike for these new rules.

As it is known, in November 2001, Chavez signed a group of economic bills which referred mainly to the petroleum and agricultural fields. Chavez said that the new regulations would improve the situation of the poor, but the critics asserted that those bills would actually threaten the feeble economy of the country. Curiously, these laws did not pass under the National Assembly’s approval, but on the contrary, they were publicly announced by Chavez during a nationally televised discourse.

The Venezuelan Laborers’ Confederation (CTV), and especially the oil industry, were furious with the government’s decision. A series of sporadic strikes suddenly started, and slowly gained importance, especially within the labor sphere. As if it was not enough, after the government voided the control applied to the currency’s exchange rate –the same that had been used for five years-, the value of the Bolivar (Venezuelan official currency) decreased significantly in 25%, compared to the American Dollar.

So much the worse was when on February 25, 2002, Chavez appointed a new board of directors for Petroleum of Venezuela (PDVSA), considered the largest and most important company in Latin America. This caused broad discontent among PDVSA’s highest ranks. Both, the new economic regulations applied by Chavez’s administration and the appointment of new board members for PDVSA, reinforced and increased the public manifestations and protests against the Venezuelan president. Swiftly, all those groups with political and economical power started a secretive plot in their attempt to dare Chavez’s authoritarianism.

However, it seems to be that the protests and the consequently increase of foes against him did not daunt Chavez at any moment. In March 2002, during his televised program called “Alo Presidente” (“Hello President”), he mentioned that he already had an alternative plan, ready to be applied, in case the oil industry decided to stagnate its activities as protest for his new regulations. “If they stop operating (the oil industry), I will militarize it,” were his exact words. Chavez even said that he could actually sign an emergency bill at any moment, by which PDVSA would be adjudicated, in case the PDVSA’s executive management would not cease in their protest against the new board of directors’ appointment; protest that had lasted one month by the time of his threatening announcement.

The intention was actually to avoid firing members of executive level. According to the Parliament’s Commission that was assigned to mediate the problem, such a decision would have been seen as negative and inappropriate for the image of the oil industry’s main company. Unfortunately, the truce almost reached by the National Assembly between the executive level and the board of directors of PDVSA, suddenly fell apart.

Tired of so many unsolved conflicts, Chavez decided to publicly fire seven executive managers, and forced another twelve of them to file for retirement. He then announced that the adjustments will continue if the conflict does not end. In a threatening manner, Chavez even said, “I do not have any problem if I would have to fire all of them.”

From threatening to threatened in one day

On the morning of April 11, 2002, 150,000 protesters hit the streets of Caracas to rally against Chavez’s regulations and in favor of the strike that the oil industry had initiated two days before. It was the third coup d’etat faced by Chavez, but the one that most affected the president’s administration. Once again, its purpose was to “kick Chavez out of power.”

Diverse syndicate leaders joined the protesters. Among them, there was CTV’s president, Carlos Ortega, as well as Pedro Carmona Estanga, president of Fedecamaras, considered the most important patronal guild of Venezuela. Throughout the day, the striking process lighten up more and more the Venezuelans’ spirits. As it was expected, opponent forces and chavistas clashed in front of the Government’s House. The National Guard also intervened during the confrontations. The outcome: At least 10 people were killed and around 110 were injured. In fact, this protest has been considered one of the most catastrophic political manifestations in the history of Venezuela.

That same day, Chavez shut down the public media’s broadcast, so they would not be able to show the violence occurring in the streets. It is important to mention that in Venezuela, most of the private TV and radio stations are actively involved with the opposition. Media’s mogul Gustavo Cisneros (head of Venevision and one of the richest people in Latin America) has been noted as the real leader of the Democratic Coordinator movement (CODE). Certainly, CODE is the opposition’s organization, directed by Miranda’s governor Enrique Mendoza; the same that Chavez condemns of being the “tool” that Washington uses in order to regain control over Venezuela.

During the April 11 protest, Chavez’s whereabouts were uncertain. First, it was said that the president had been detained in military headquarters. But the version was denied by the General Inspector of the National Army, General Lucas Rincon. The following day, it was publicly informed that Chavez had resigned. Pedro Carmona, president of the Chamber of Commerce and one of the organizers of the protest, was elected president of the interim government. Nonetheless, two days later, after the collapse of the transitory administration, Chavez returned to power, denying all the versions regarding his presumed resignation.

Chavez’s sentence

Chavez did not only endure the unsuccessful coup d’etat of April 11, but he also went through a second one attempted by the opposition against his administration in October 2002.

Definitely, the loyalty of Chavez’s followers kept him afloat. But the opposition forces would not rest after the many frustrated attempts of bringing Chavez down from power. In fact, hundreds of laborers started a national strike, demanding the president’s resignation or at least the call for national elections.

 

Many oil executives supported the laborer’s motion. They even denounced Chavez publicly and internationally, as the head of state who impoverished and corrupted the country. And, of course, they had the support of the private media. As a consequence of the strike carried out by the oil industry in December 2002, there was a shortage of fuel throughout the country.

In May 2003, a month after workers from factories and universities ended the suspension of activities, the opposition signed an agreement patronized by the Organization of the American States (OAS), by which the guidelines for a potential referendum in Venezuela would be established. This referendum would determine if Chavez would remain in power or not.

Three months later, the request was made in front of the National Electoral Board (CNE): More than three million signatures were gathered and presented by the opposition, requesting the referendum that would reconsider the prevalence of the chavista administration in power.

However, the CNE rejected the request, expressing that there were specific unmet requirements that impeded the fulfillment of a referendum. According to the CNE, Chavez had not completed the first half of his administration by the time the request was made.

Only three months later, the opposition decided to introduce the request again. In a marathonic accomplishment, they successfully gathered 3,4 million names. But once again, the CNE objected: Only 1.9 million names were accepted as valid, since it seemed to be that there had been irregular procedures at the moment of the collection.

Meanwhile, the protests continued throughout the country. In March 2003, there were clashes between chavistas forces and the opposition, which led to many casualties and several people injured along the streets of Caracas.

Finally, the CNE gave the opposition the opportunity of collecting names, in order to request –once again- the completion of a referendum.

Last May, the electoral board gave the opposition a four-day period only for them to gather the signatures. And the opposition fulfilled the task. After a thorough process of validation, the CNE approved the referendum, which will be carried out next August 15.

The Tense Calmness

Millions of Venezuelans will have to answer a simple question in order to decide if Hugo Chavez would continue his administration or not. On June 16, the president of the National Electoral Committee, Jorge Rodriguez, announced that the question had been established as follows: "Do you agree on disavowing the mandate of citizen Hugo Chavez Frias as president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, who was elected by legitimate democratic elections to administrate the current presidential period?"

 

But the decision would not be simply taken considering only the majority of votes. The “YES” answer would only win if the number of votes are equal or more than the 3.76 million votes that democratically elected Chavez as Venezuela’s president in 2002. On the contrary, if the number of votes do not surpass the ones given to the “NO” answer, Chavez would stay in power until 2007, when his administration is supposed to end under normal circumstances.

Now, if the “YES” answer surpasses the 3.76 million votes, the electoral administration will have to convoke presidential elections during the following 30 days after the referendum. The elected candidate would be able to govern until February 2, 2007; date on which Chavez is supposed to finish his presidential period.
 

Certainly, the rules of the game have been already displayed. Now it is time for the Venezuelan people to decide who will stay in power and who will have to quit. Seemingly, the referendum represents the ultimate alternative for the opposition. Meanwhile, Chavez just has to wait that the 25 millions of Venezuelan citizens decide his political fate.

All in all, this country –holder of one of the richest subsoils in the world and that, despite of that fact, has 85% of its people living under the poverty line- is undergoing a tense calmness. Unfortunately, it could be disturbed at any moment by any violent, massive reaction, before and after the referendum’s outcome. But after a long history of political irregularities, it is almost certain that Venezuelans are pretty sure of the political storm ahead. Uncertainness and distrust are easily felt in the air. Due to social, geopolitical and economic reasons, the expectations are also international. So the real question that now pops up is, Are we going to have Hugo for a longer period of time?