Today the name “Chávez” is immediately associated with Colonel Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, a politician who has broken the political mold and believes in alternative policies. Chávez causes controversy wherever he goes and whenever he speaks -and he speaks all the time, every single day.  

I cannot continue this article without clarifying my personal opinion about Chávez. I am not exactly devoted to him since I think that he has harmed Colombia’s interests by taking a lenient stance in his relationships with the Colombian Guerrilla Group FARC. By opening up 2,500 kilometres of Venezuela’s borders, Chávez has given the insurgents breathing space. Without this, they would have had to enter into serious peace negotiations, despite the vast earnings from drug production. However, the issue here is Chávez, not the FARC.       

For someone like me, who holds left wing democratic views, Chávez deserves recognition. He has proven himself an intelligent left wing political leader, democratically elected by the Venezuelan People, who has implemented a social revolution. Whilst some see this revolution as hollow, others believe Chávez has made significant changes: Chávez is using oil revenues to provide health care to marginalised people and relying on “importing” around  8,000 Cuban doctors, to cover the whole of Venezuela -which in turn is helping his friend Castro by alleviating Cuba’s undeniable social and demographic problem; Chávez has initiated a programme aimed at reducing the cost of basic products to families by introducing People’s Shops in marginalised urban areas. He is also providing access to education in a ways only matched by Cuba across the world, giving grants to those students who otherwise would not have been able to study and tackling illiteracy. In terms of social welfare therefore, so far so good.            

In the political arena, Chávez has certainly deprived the Venezuelan elite of the political monopoly that they had been holding since the fall of Marcos Pérez Jiménez and during the Transitional Government which lead Rómulo Betancur of the Democratic Action Party to power. He has allowed access to the structures of state to a whole social class that otherwise would have remained excluded from politics. Also, we must recognise that the opposition has had complete freedom to engage in political propaganda, and that there is not a single political prisoner. Chávez has the same weapons in democracy that were used by those now in opposition. His political opponents never embodied the virtues of fairness and democracy, and have not a single political figure with enough popular support to pose a serious political threat. Cardona, of course, was just a bad joke. The fact that Chávez is still in power has more to do with the opposition’s shortcomings than with his own abilities.

In economic terms no-one can deny the crisis that Venezuela is facing. Although some commentators claim that, at a 10% in 2003, the country’s economy is growing faster than any other country in the world, they forget that Venezuela’s GDP was $120 billion US when Chávez came to power but today, five years later, it amounts only to $79 billion US, a 35% decrease in GDP during his term in office. It is worth noting that Pre-Chávez Venezuela’s GDP was 16.7%  greater than Colombia’s whereas today Colombia’s GDP is 3% higher than Venezuela’s, even despite the rocketing oil prices which have injected $22billion US into Venezuela’s international reserves (equivalent to two years’ worth of export). As these oil revenues belong to the Government, Chávez could have spent part of this money reducing foreign debt that weighs down each citizen of this country. The comparisons don’t look good. Whereas the foreign debt per head of population for each Colombian is a little under $1,000 US, for each Venezuelan it is almost double this figure.

Inflation is a black mark for Chávez. He has always called it the worst tax on the poor and Venezuela hasn’t been able to reduce country’s high inflation –which was 31.2 % in 2002, 27.1% in 2003 and is estimated at 28.5% for this year. Inflation this high is almost a world record, a dubious honour for a President who believes himself to be so efficient. 

What will happen in August? The cancelled referendum took place, after all manner of pressure from all sides, and in August they are going to take stock of the friends and foes of this Bolivar-inspired revolution. Chávez’s friends maintain that they will be the winners, because they have the general public on their side, not to mention a President in the middle of his electoral campaign who is making full use of his budget to convince both his citizens and also the armed forces. The army is loyal to Chávez and represents something of a phenomenon in Latin America for being the only left wing armed force in a democratic country.

For their part, his enemies believe that there will be no referendum, and that Chávez will play the resignation card: if Chávez is defeated in the referendum he cannot immediately stand for re-election; however, if he jumps before he is pushed, he can. Let’s see what happens in the remaining 45 days before they decide the fate of this military man. He has many friends and many enemies, not least of which are the United States, who are quite interested in seeing the fall of the famous Colonel Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías.

For better or for worse, the Chávez phenomenon was caused by a crisis in the political parties, who were being severely attacked by the media. The media tried to discredit long-standing social groups, but were ultimately unsuccessful as the power did not fall into the hands of their technocrat friends, but into the hands of revolutionaries who intended to change the country’s power structure.

Chávez’s successes

In the international arena Chávez has achieved some impresive successes. He was one of those who managed to sabotage the USA-devised trade monster ALCA, by instead joining forces with Argentina and Brasil; this then forced the States to look for free trade treaties with individual countries. The price of oil is also a great success of Chávez’s government: let’s bear in mind that when he came to power, a barrel of oil cost only $9. The President travelled all over the world and succeeded in changing OPEC’s policies, benefitting Venezuela’s sole export product. Another success was achieved in Bolivia, thanks to his famously saying that he wanted “to swim in Bolivian waters”. This undoubtedly helped the Andean country in its age-old battle for (highly deserved) access to the sea; no other leader would have dared take such a move.

Another hard-fought success won by Chávez was embedding the countries of the Andean pact (Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia) in the large market named MERCOSUR, which in the very short term will form a widened market which can strengthen the economies which have to not only fight their corner in a globalised world but also compete with the United States. Another programme which Chávez has (rightly) opposed was the “Colombia Plan”, given that it was essentially a plan for war, but dressed up as a war on drugs.

On the international circuit, Chávez has tried to export his Bolivar-inspired revolution, supported by Castro and the favourable current oil prices, but he finds himself faced with none other than the Americans, who eye him with pure hatred and oppose all he does. They frequently accuse him of trying to destablise the continent, particulalry Colombia, by supporting the Guerrillas, a charge which he denies in the media (although nobody believes him), and which is leaving Venezuela with a public order problem in the making, whose outcome is difficult to foresee.

After the 15th of August, referendum day, Chávez’s fate hangs in the balance. However, short of physically removing him, God forbid, he will continue to play a deciding role in the future fortunes of Venezuela. He is still young and has the support to enable him to continue being a key player to decide the future for our sister country.