The Peruvian president, Alejandro Toledo, is on the verge of surviving himself; come 28th July 2006, he will have completed his mandate. What could happen to Latin America's most unpopular leader's unpredictable government just ten months before a new president is sworn in?

Peru is a country of anecdotes and so let us begin with one.

Last Sunday, 25 th September, an earthquake measuring 7 on the Richter scale shook the rainforest in Northern Peru. The president, Alejandro Toledo, must surely have felt the quake rather strongly himself as at that very moment he was just a few kilometers from the epicenter in the luxurious northern spa of Punta Sal; a kind of beachside Camp David for our president.

The next morning, Toledo boarded the presidential plane and made his way towards Lamas, a delightful village destroyed by the quake. Stooped over the debris, the president announced the usual measures taken in these cases - reconstruction programmes, the creation of an emergency fund, and people applauded. His personal friend, ex-minister of four different posts and splendid general secretary of the government's Possible Peru (PP) party, Javier Reátegui smiled at Toledo's side. But Reátegui does not currently occupy any of the many public posts he has held in the last four years. So, what was he doing at the president's side, helping organize the reconstruction work?

Easy: Javier Reátegui is Toledo's candidate for next April's presidential elections. Although he has no official reason for being there it would seem that appearing as part of Lamas' relief team will do him no harm.

Though Reátegui has not been officially named, several palace sources are certain that Toledo will make him the PP candidate and no one else has yet been put forward. According to these sources, Reátegui's appearance in Lamas is just the beginning of a government-backed electoral campaign. Is this to be the route taken by Toledo's government in their final ten months?

"The PP hopes to play a respectable role, and why not just say it, win the elections" assures the Ex-Minister for Employment, Juan Sheput. Sheput would also like Reátegui to be the party candidate, although he denies the use possible use of state funds in the campaign. In reality, the PP's aspirations to win a second mandate seem extreme. According to the polls, the president's popularity is just 18%, whilst of the party is firmly placed at 5%. Sheput, however, will not be discouraged and believes the PP will see a rise in these figures once "a presidential candidate is officially named". According to the minister, "good economic results are still not accredited to a candidate and, therefore, there still exists a hidden vote for the PP".

There is no such thing as a bad fifth (year)

The explanation of good economic results holds the most water. The analyst, Santiago Pedraglio, maintains that "unless something catastrophic happens", by the end of his mandate president Toledo will have left the country "in the black, with a stable macroeconomy, controlled inflation, with reserves and a public deficit of just 1%, which, for the region, is very little". Even with a rise in expenditure, as a consequence of the use of government apparatus in the elections, Pedraglio estimates that the deficit is unlikely to increase by more than 0.3%.

However, the macroeconomic results have not been felt in the pockets of the average Peruvian. In the last few weeks, three strikes by nurses, university lecturers and the police threatened the government. These issues have all been solved but Sheput is conscious that the imminent elections will serve only to strengthen these demands. "the big social players know perfectly well that it is easier to ask these things of a government on its way out, rather than not to demand anything from that which will take over, because it is more solid, it has a recent mandate and so is more reluctant to concede more" he said.

Pedraglio argues that, although the last government's last few months will see greater social demands, Toledo will survive. "This is never going to be Switzerland" but he goes on to identify the biggest conflicts that lie on the horizon: cocalero , anti-mine and anti-Free Trade Agreement (with the US) movements. "None of these social problems is about to explode. This is an important difference to what has happened in Ecuador and Bolivia".

It almost sounds like everything is under control. That is, it does not sound anything like Peru during the last four years. During this time, political scandals were the norm. The president made himself look frivolous, weak and a liar and a sense of lack of authority shook the country. At one point, the polls showed that 70% of people in Lima were ready to demand that the president step down.

This was the other face of a stable macroeconomy. A country that until recently saw Toledo in a stranglehold with a sword of Damocles called resignation hanging over him, and it only needed Congress' approval to bring the sword crashing down onto our president.

However, last July 28 th the sword lost its blade. According to the Peruvian Constitution, the president cannot be ousted in his final year. So the opposition forgot about the multiple cases of PP corruption, and the main candidates concentrate their energy and concern on each other and not the government.

With the situation like this, president Toledo's final year should be his mandate's most peaceful. In reality, the only thing he has to do to hold on is nothing. Nothing, let things be done, let things happen. Let the candidates tear each other to pieces, as is traditional in our politics. Let the prime minister manage politics. Play dead, as we say in Peru. And cross his fingers not to die after 2006.

Life after 2006

The elections might allow Toledo to finally forget about being ousted, but they will also serve as a reminder that the end is near.

Various analysts argue that PP needs a strong presence in the next Congress in order to block any future investigations into the many corruption cases involving those surrounding the president. The government's two most serious cases are hardly unsolved mysteries. The first involves offshore accounts in the Panamanian Blue Bay held by the first lady, Eliane Karp and Toledo's ex-lawyer, César Almeida - currently serving time for his dealings with the Vladimiro Montesinos mafia. The second, the departure of Carmen Burga, a witness in the trial for falsification of signatures for Possible Peru's inclusion on the electoral register. This strange escape was aided by two of the president's nephews and some close advisors. In the investigative press, there is speculation over other major (though unpublished) cases that may be revealed following a change in power and that will inevitably lead to one or many constitutional charges being brought against the future ex-president, Toledo.

Such predictions would leave Toledo two options: either he could face the accusations supported by an strong majority in the next Congress, or exile just like ex-presidents Garcia and Fujimori.

This bleak scenario is not a possibility for Sheput. Toledo's minister is convinced that the president will stay in the country to consolidate the party. "I am certain that this is how it will be and that Toledo will become a sort of conscience for the next government". As far as future investigations are concerned, Sheput assures that no charges will be brought against the president: "the problems that have existed, rather than corruption, have been related to political management. They belong to the margins: the brothers the friends, the government's party".

Pedraglio is not so naïve, but neither does he see the president fleeing the country, unless an incredibly serious case of corruption involving our current president is discovered. With this theory ruled out, Pedraglio sees Toledo's future constructing "a platform for 2011, thanks to which he will be able to present some general successes. I do not believe for a second that he will leave political life".

Unless, of course, something very significant is discovered about Toledo - perhaps.